Planning fallacy and what it means

Reading Time: 1

When is the presentation? Friday.
No problem, I will start on Thursday night,
it will take me only 1 hr to do it.
Come Friday morning and
you are still typing away for past 8 hours

When is the meeting? Monday 12 pm.
No worries.
I will read the material 15 mins before, I can quickly read.
Turns out the deck is 150 pages and
you have only 15 mins.

When is the exam? 6 months later. No issues.
I will start one week before and
will do all-nighters and crack the exam.
Come exam morning, you open the question paper and
your mind goes blank with 3 days of no sleep

Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel prize for his behavioral studies,
calls this the Planning Fallacy

We chronically underestimate the time it would take to complete the task – even when we have done it before.

A group of people were asked their best and
worst case for completing a task (which they had done before).
Best case was 28 days and worst was 44 days.

The actual: 55 days !

When we don’t plan, we expect the best to happen

Guess what? Life has other ‘plans’

“What’s the point of planning then?” you would say

We always anticipate the obstacles which can come
and ‘plan’ our response
then, when it happens
you are prepared
and always in a balanced state of mind

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What is one Action you will take to
anticipate obstacles in your way?

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